Conceptual

We imagine the result of your Venezuelan exodus into the Colombian labor markets. The economic and you will personal drama from inside the Venezuela brought about among the important migratory exoduses when you look at the current age: more than cuatro mil Venezuelans left the nation and you will close to step 1.8 million arrived in Colombia. I demonstrate that a boost in step one p.p from labor also provide owed the newest migratory flow triggered a drop in hourly wages in Colombia from 0.4% and you may a poor effect of 0.1 p.p. to the a job price of reduced-competent professionals. The fresh new get rid of in wages are better for men, low-skilled and you can everyday pros.

Inclusion

The latest Venezuelan migratory exodus the most very important periods regarding forced migration global: from the 4.5 million out of Venezuelans left the country and you may went somewhere else Footnote step 1 (UNHCR 2019). Widely known place to go for departing Venezuelan migrants is actually Colombia. Based on certified analytics, there have been almost 1.8 million of Venezuelans residing in Colombia during the 2019, courtesy brand new Venezuelan financial and you may governmental crisis, which represents a boost in the latest show of Venezuelans residing in Colombia in line with the latest federal populace out-of 0.07% in the 2015 to three.6% whenever inside 2019.

That it extreme episode of migration stands for problems to help you policymakers who seek to know and measure the possibility financial and you can public outcomes of these a large inflow of immigrants, specifically for server nations such as for example Colombia.

Inside report, We exploit the fresh new Venezuelan exodus to understand the migratory episode’s effect on the Colombian work field. We use a differences-in-distinctions methodology and you may run my personal study from the because of the number of coverage across the Colombian divisions compared to that exogenous labor have treat, pre and post 2016 (i.e. 2013-2019). When you look at the 2016 a critical and you may unexpected migratory increase regarding Venezuelans in order to Colombia happened when the limits between them places were reopened immediately after almost a-year from closing.

My personal rates advise that the fresh intensification of your own migratory flow out-of Venezuelans beginning in middle-2016 produced a serious drop in the aggregate wages plus the work price away from reasonable-competent workers in the Colombia. An increase in step 1 percentage part (p.p.) of your labor force due to the inflow from Venezuelans made a 0.4% reduction of earnings and you may an excellent 0.step one p.p. reduced total of a position for lower-competent professionals; this affect work show a drop away from 0.18% in line with an average a career rate regarding reasonable-competent Colombian specialists inside 2015, until the Venezuelan exodus. When i imagine these effects to possess Colombian departments found on the border with Venezuela (Los angeles Guajira and you may Norte de Santander), results train that declines in the earnings and you will a job for everyone pros was in fact everything ten% and you can step three.cuatro p.p. (a great average a job), correspondingly, after the border are re-opened.

To imagine the outcome off migration within these a few border divisions, I build a running classification playing with three divisions out of Colombia you to weren’t firmly influenced by immigration and you will displayed, on average, equivalent trends regarding work field variables together with equivalent socio-group services prior to the border re also-beginning. To incorporate robustness to the efficiency, I incorporate a plastic material Handle Approach and you may assess a comparable variations-in-distinctions estimations given different combinations from divisions from Colombia due to the fact manage teams.

I additionally estimate heterogeneous outcomes because of the gender, number of certification, labor formality and you can provided whether or not the individuals were natives or not. I’ve found one to, in aggregate, the fresh damage inside the earnings is high for males compared to the women and far stronger getting lowest-competent professionals. Moreover, the lowering of wages are deeper for informal pros however, here are not very important differences when considering locals and non-natives; the only exemption is the fact I have found a statistically extreme increase throughout the informality price one of non-neighbors when you look at the Colombia.